http://www.edtechpost.ca/wordpress/2007/01/23/on-the-perils-of-stargazing-and-the-nmc-horizon-report/ Technologies for Learning, Thinking and Collaborating Wed, 08 Feb 2012 09:50:04 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.4 http://www.edtechpost.ca/wordpress/2007/01/23/on-the-perils-of-stargazing-and-the-nmc-horizon-report/#comment-496 Scott Fri, 26 Jan 2007 16:20:44 +0000 http://www.edtechpost.ca/wordpress/2007/01/23/on-the-perils-of-stargazing-and-the-nmc-horizon-report/#comment-496 Hi Mike, yeah, I had the same thought. I didn't do it as a formal exercise, but I did go over the last 4 years reports, and my impression was that as the timeframe increaed (from 1 year to 5 years), the accuracy of the speculation generally lessened (kind of obviously). But what's more interesting, I think, is to look at the progress over the 4 years. The first year, 2004 - Learning Objects, Scalable Vector Graphics, Rapid Prototyping, Multimodal Interfaces, Context-Aware Computing and Knowledge Webs? Even the language belies how 'buzzy' some of these were and I think in comparison, this year's is much more based on probable futures. I also like the fact that each year they've produced a "Where are they now?" section (cf. http://www.nmc.org/horizon/wiki/Where_Are_They_Now_2006) looking back at last year's predicitions. Hi Mike, yeah, I had the same thought. I didn’t do it as a formal exercise, but I did go over the last 4 years reports, and my impression was that as the timeframe increaed (from 1 year to 5 years), the accuracy of the speculation generally lessened (kind of obviously). But what’s more interesting, I think, is to look at the progress over the 4 years. The first year, 2004 – Learning Objects, Scalable Vector Graphics, Rapid Prototyping, Multimodal Interfaces, Context-Aware Computing and Knowledge Webs? Even the language belies how ‘buzzy’ some of these were and I think in comparison, this year’s is much more based on probable futures. I also like the fact that each year they’ve produced a “Where are they now?” section (cf. http://www.nmc.org/horizon/wiki/Where_Are_They_Now_2006) looking back at last year’s predicitions.

]]> http://www.edtechpost.ca/wordpress/2007/01/23/on-the-perils-of-stargazing-and-the-nmc-horizon-report/#comment-495 Mike Roy Fri, 26 Jan 2007 04:41:38 +0000 http://www.edtechpost.ca/wordpress/2007/01/23/on-the-perils-of-stargazing-and-the-nmc-horizon-report/#comment-495 One of projects that I've never gotten around to doing is to take the whole pile of horizon reports and see what they got right and what they got wrong. They've started this process a bit on their wiki, but it does seem to be a useful exercise to regularly poke at predictions to figure out why they didn't quite work out as we thought they might. One of projects that I’ve never gotten around to doing is to take the whole pile of horizon reports and see what they got right and what they got wrong. They’ve started this process a bit on their wiki, but it does seem to be a useful exercise to regularly poke at predictions to figure out why they didn’t quite work out as we thought they might.

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